Feb 12, 2026
Technology
Crossing the Rubicon
White Papers
Stifel IRIS is delighted to announce the release of “Crossing the Rubicon: Re‑engineering Power in the Age of Modern Warfare”, an in‑depth analysis of the fragmenting global security architecture and the urgent structural transformation required within the European defence industrial base.
What this paper covers:
The post‑Cold War illusion of a pacified, globalised world has ended, replaced by an era of militarised revisionism and systemic contestation. While Western societies have operated under deterrence‑fatigue, active global conflicts have quadrupled over the last 30 years, marking the most conflict‑ridden landscape since WWII, while the cumulative surface area of conflict zones has grown by 65% since 2021 alone.
Despite the U.S. remaining a primary military partner, its posture has shifted toward “transactional retrenchment,” leaving Europe with a strategic rite of passage: to transform from a passive security consumer into a proactive provider. The challenge is no longer just quantitative budget increases, but a qualitative leap in industrial mass, technological agility, and the ability to sustain high‑intensity, multi‑domain attrition.
Our latest white paper, “Crossing the Rubicon”, presents a strategic overview of how defence innovation is shifting from legacy platform‑centric prestige to effect‑centric mass and kill‑web architectures. We examine how Europe’s industrial leaders must move away from peacetime efficiency to embrace reconfigurable production, and we identify four essential procurement models—Survivable Platforms, Attritable Platforms, Disposable Platforms, and Software Solutions—that are driving future readiness.
The paper also highlights breakthroughs in areas such as AI‑enabled decision dominance, the “post‑stealth” era of quantum sensing, and the emergence of the digitised warfighter. For a deeper look at these trends, including a listed defence valuation radar and a detailed analysis of recent pan‑European defence transactions, download the full report.
Written by Thomas Mordelle
Written by
Analyst
